AORM | L4: Scenario Analysis: Method for Quantifying Events

Scenario analysis is critically important in risk, both for management and measurement. Quantification of rare events does not have to be guess-work and does not necessarily require heavy quantitative background. The Lesson explains how, in a few simple steps, scenario assessment can be decomposed into a useful discussion about exposure, control layers and points of failures, for better mitigation and more robust quantification.

Lesson 4.1: Scenario identification
• Definition of Scenario Analysis
• Challenges and Uses of Scenarios
• Regulatory Requirements
• Six Steps of Scenario Analysis
• Running a Scenario Generation Workshop

Lesson 4.2: Scenario assessment
• Elements of Assessment
• Delphi Technique
• Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Structured Scenarios
• Examples

Lesson 4.3: Scenario validation
• Scenario Documentation Sheet
• Role and Process of Scenario Validation
• Use of Scenario Data in Capital
• Use of Scenario Data in Management
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