How US Intelligence Services Analyze Global Risks Like COVID-19

By Steve Lindo

A featured article of our April 2020 edition of PRMIA's Intelligent Risk quarterly newsletter


Terrorism, war, cyber-attacks, drug cartels – these are just some of the volatile and uncertain risks which confront US Intelligence Services every day. The teams of professionals tasked with analyzing these global risks face a herculean task, sifting through mountains of inconclusive and sometimes conflicting data,  as  well  as  expert  opinions,  emotions  and  cognitive  biases,  all  under  intense  time  pressure.  In  order to address these challenges, over the course of the last 25 years US Intelligence Services have developed and implemented a suite of analytical methods specifically designed to produce rigorous, objective and transparent assessment of complex, high-stakes situations such as these.


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