Climate Scenario Analysis

This course will equip you with the knowledge and understanding of climate scenario analysis as well as how to build a climate scenario analysis framework for your enterprise.  You will be able to explain what scenarios need to be built for your own enterprise then perform some scenario analysis using publicly available data.  There will be case studies of other firms' approaches to scenario analysis including banking and the oil and gas industry. 

Learning Objectives

• Describe the concepts of climate scenario analysis
• Describe the regulatory drivers of climate scenario analysis such as the Task Force on Climate-Related Financial Disclosures (TCFD), the European Union requirements and other countries’ best practices
• Apply and analyze scenarios from the oil industry and the banking industry to similar practical situations to satisfy the requirements of the TCFD and other emerging regulations using available data on oil prices, carbon prices, and other sources of financial and non-financial drivers of risk and opportunity
• Prepare a climate scenario analysis framework including business and board level reporting, combining externally available data with internal analysis of risks and opportunities

   

Prerequisites

Participants should have knowledge of:

• Climate change
• Climate risk drivers such as extreme weather (or physical risks)
• Transition risks to implement decarbonization plans to Net Zero carbon emissions (if you don't have this prerequisite, please consider taking our course How to Respond to Climate Risk: Transition Risk)

Climate Scenario Analysis

 Regulatory Drivers and Financial Disclosures  of Climate Scenarios

 Case Studies
 Building a Climate Scenario Report

 Building a Climate Scenario Analysis Framework

• Business and Board-level Reporting

This is a course designed for 1st and 2nd line staff who are about to perform climate scenario analysis or want to learn about it.

• Risk management
• Front office business staff

Duncan Wilson has 38 years of work experience with half in banking and half in management consultancy.  Currently, he specialises in two fields:

1. Climate Risk Management: training and advising clients on the climate and ESG-related reporting requirements, climate scenario analysis, and climate risk management frameworks. He has also made and published four training films on climate science, sustainable finance, climate risk management, and climate scenario analysis.
2. Risk Management in the first line (chief control office in trading environments) and in the second line of defence with a deep subject matter expertise in non-financial risk management/operational risk. 

Duncan's 17 years of banking experience is with four different firms: Schroders, BNP Paribas, Deutsche Bank and HSBC.  He has led global non-financial risk teams across all major trading hubs as a risk manager.  He has also gained experience as a program director on large scale transformation projects. In HSBC he had roles within the non-financial risk department as the head of operational risk for the investment banking division and in the first line he worked in the front office's control office as the head of market conduct surveillance.  In Deutsche Bank he was the Deputy Head of Group Operational Risk, and at BNP Paribas he was the Global Head of Operational Risk.  In Schroders he was the finance manager for the trading department. 

Duncan's 21 years of management consulting experience encompasses roles as senior advisor and consultant to various companies around the world including the USA, UK and Europe. He qualified as a chartered accountant in the UK in and also passed the exams to be a member of the Association of Corporate Treasurers. 

Duncan has a Law degree from the University of Hull. He also holds a certificate of Sustainability and Climate Risk.