AORM | L4: Scenario Analysis: Method for Quantifying Events

AORM | L4: Scenario Analysis: Method for Quantifying  Events
Customize your learning!   Register to attend Lesson 4 of our eight part series on Advanced Operational Risk Management.


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About this Training

Presented By: Dr. Ariane Chapelle
Delivery: Virtual Training
Date: Tuesday, May 14, 2019
Total Lesson Length: 60 minutes + optional reading and assignments

Lesson 4: Scenario Analysis: Simple Method for Quantifying Rare Events
Scenario analysis is critically important in risk, both for management and measurement. Quantification of rare events does not have to be guess-work and does not necessarily require heavy quantitative background. The Lesson explains how, in a few simple steps, scenario assessment can be decomposed into a useful discussion about exposure, control layers and points of failures, for better mitigation and more robust quantification.

Lesson 4.1: Scenario identification
• Definition of Scenario Analysis
• Challenges and Uses of Scenarios
• Regulatory Requirements
• Six Steps of Scenario Analysis
• Running a Scenario Generation Workshop

Lesson 4.2: Scenario assessment
• Elements of Assessment
• Delphi Technique
• Fault Tree Analysis (FTA) and Structured Scenarios
• Examples

Lesson 4.3: Scenario validation
• Scenario Documentation Sheet
• Role and Process of Scenario Validation
• Use of Scenario Data in Capital
• Use of Scenario Data in Management

Who Should Attend

Heads of Operational Risk, Enterprise Risk Managers, Operational Risk Managers, Internal Auditors, Compliance officers, Consultants, Regulators, Team members who have taken one of our ORM courses and/or passed the ORM exam and are looking for advanced level training. 

How It Works 

Our Virtual Courses are launched weekly using pre-recorded lectures in right-sized segments. Access lessons any time during the course to view the lecture and participate in learning activities, discussion forums, recommended readings, or submit questions to our instructor. Access to the instructor will conclude one week following the lesson, but you can access the course for one full year to further support your learning.

Topics in The Full Series

Lesson 1, April 23 Framework and Taxonomy for Operational Risk
Lesson 2, April 30
Risk Appetite Statements and Tolerance Limits
Lesson 3, May 7
A Modern Representation of Risk & Control Self Assessments (RCSA)
Lesson 4, May 14 Scenario Analysis: Simple Method for Quantifying Rare Events
Lesson 5, May 21 Six Steps to Define and Design Preventive KRIs
Lesson 6, May 28 Operational Risk Management for Projects
Lesson 7, June 4 Information Security Assessment and Essentials of Cyber Protection
Lesson 8, June 11 Conduct and Culture: Measurement and Management

View Full Series Lesson Descriptions


Registration Options
Course Member Pricing Registration Link
Lesson 4 $99 - Non Member
$89 - Contributing
$79 - Sustaining/ RIM
Register for Lesson 4
Full Series (8 Lessons)
April 23-June 11, 2019
$699 - Non Member
$649 - Contributing 
$599 - Sustaining/ RIM
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About Our Expert

ARIANE CHAPELLE, PhD, is Associate Professor (Honorary Reader) at University College London for the course 'Operational Risk Measurement for Financial Institutions’ and is a Fellow of the Institute of Operational Risk and a trainer for the Professional Risk Managers' International Association (PRMIA), for whom she designed the Certificate of Learning and Practice in Advanced Operational Risk Management.  She is a former holder of the Chair of International Finance at the University of Brussels. She has been active in operational risk management since 2000 and is a former head of operational risk management at ING Group and Lloyds Banking Group. Dr. Chapelle runs her own training and consulting practice in risk management. Her clients include Tier 1 financial organisations and international financial institutions. Her new textbook “Operational Risk Management: best practices in the financial services industry”, published by Wiley in December 2018 is already a best seller, ranking up to #3 on Amazon UK and up to # 1 in new releases of financial risk management books.

Continuing Risk Learning Credits: 1
PRMIA Continuing Risk Learning (CRL) programs provide you with the opportunity to formally recognize your professional development, documenting your evolution as a risk professional. Employers can see that you are not static, making you a highly valued, dynamic, and desirable employee. The CRL program is open to all Contributing, Sustaining, and Risk Leader members, providing a convenient and easily accessible way to submit, manage, track and document your activities online through the PRMIA CRL Center. To request CRL credits, please email


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